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James Guild

James Guild

The Diplomat

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Southeast Asia and the Middle East Energy Shock

Countries across the region have banned fuel exports and are attempting to reduce fuel consumption in anticipation of a regional energy crunch.

previous day 4

The Diplomat

James Guild

What Does Indonesia Get Out of the US-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade?

Jakarta has made numerous concessions in the agreement but there is little evidence of reciprocity from Washington.

04.03.2026 7

The Diplomat

James Guild

Southeast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a Profit

Under mounting pressure from shareholders, the app finally broke into the black for the first time last year.

26.02.2026 20

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James Guild

Indonesia’s Unconventional 2026 Budget

It reflects many of the priorities and core economic beliefs of the Prabowo administration, including heavy investment in social welfare programs.

18.02.2026 6

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James Guild

Singapore Goes to Space

The city-state is seeking to capitalize on one of its comparative advantages as a regional center of STEM education and research.

12.02.2026 3

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James Guild

Indonesia’s Stock Market Sell-Off, Explained

Last week, the IHSG Composite Index plunged by 8 percent, wiping out an estimated $80 billion in market value.

03.02.2026 8

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James Guild

Vietnam’s Semiconductor Strategy, Explained

The country just broke ground on its first integrated chip plant, part of its ambition of pushing itself up the global semiconductor value chain.

29.01.2026 8

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James Guild

Unpacking Indonesia’s 2025 Fiscal Revenue Shortfall

Last year the country ran a budget deficit of 2.92 percent, the largest in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.

22.01.2026 6

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James Guild

Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization Set to Accelerate in 2026

At a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty, the scale and pace of major military procurements in the region is increasing.

13.01.2026 10

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James Guild

Is a Strong Baht Bad for Thailand’s Economy?

Despite the country's stagnant economy, the baht gained nearly 9 percent against the dollar over the course of 2025.

06.01.2026 8

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James Guild

The Pacific Money Blog: 2025 Year in Review

From new state investment funds to U.S. tariffs, it has been a busy year for Southeast Asia's economies.

23.12.2025 6

The Diplomat

James Guild

Why Indonesia Cancelled the Early Retirement of the Cirebon-1 Power Plant

As predicted, the early retirement of coal-fired power plants has run aground on the country's political economic realities.

16.12.2025 20

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James Guild

Vietnam’s 2026 Budget, Explained

Strong economic performance sent government revenue soaring in 2025, putting the country in an enviable fiscal position.

10.12.2025 7

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James Guild

Is the Economic Crisis in Laos Coming to an End?

The kip has stabilized and inflation is dropping, but the issue of the government's heavy external debt remains unresolved.

04.12.2025 20

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James Guild

The Oddities of Vietnam’s Property Market, Explained

Have the country's real estate prices become untethered from the basic economic forces of supply and demand?

28.11.2025 10

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James Guild

Is the GoTo-Grab Merger Finally Going to Happen?

The possible involvement of the Indonesian state investment fund Danantara could remove one of the primary roadblocks to a merger.

20.11.2025 5

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James Guild

Breaking Down the Philippines’ 2026 Budget

Economic growth in the Philippines remains on a solid trajectory, but the government has struggled in recent years to reduce its budget deficit.

11.11.2025 3

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James Guild

Indonesia’s Never-Ending Quest for a National Car

President Prabowo Subianto says the country will begin producing a home-grown car within three years, but a lot of details remain unclear.

07.11.2025 5

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James Guild

Breaking Down Malaysia’s 2026 Budget

The budget contains few surprises, putting the country in a good position to face the uncertainty of the current global economic climate.

28.10.2025 7

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James Guild

Vietnam’s Upgrade to Emerging Market Status, Explained

The recent decision by the index provider FTSE Russel reflects the country's maturing market conditions and improved regulatory climate.

21.10.2025 6

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James Guild

The Indonesia-EU Free Trade Agreement, Explained

The deal, nearly a decade in the making, is closely connected to the broader churn in the global economy.

08.10.2025 10

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James Guild

Thailand’s 2026 Budget, Explained

Deficits seem set to remain a key feature of Thailand’s fiscal reality for a significant time to come.

02.10.2025 8

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James Guild

The Economic Philosophy of Sumitro Djojohadikusumo

The economist articulated a series of statist economic principles that continue to guide decision-making in Indonesia to the present day.

24.09.2025 4

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James Guild

The Whoosh Debt Dilemma: Should Public Transportation Be Profitable?

That Indonesia’s costly high-speed rail is operating at a loss right out of the gate has raised some eyebrows.

20.09.2025 5

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James Guild

Is Vietnam Becoming the New Thailand?

Despite COVID-19 and global trade tensions, Vietnam's exports and current account surplus continue to grow.

09.09.2025 6

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James Guild

What Makes Digital Banks in Southeast Asia Successful?

The recent track record in the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand shows a great deal of divergence.

03.09.2025 6

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James Guild

Vietnam’s Long Thanh International Airport Nears Completion

The $13 billion project offers some interesting insights into how Hanoi is building critical infrastructure.

29.08.2025 5

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James Guild

Indonesia’s Digital Banking Scene is Getting Crowded

Competition is heating up at one of the final frontiers of the country's tech boom.

19.08.2025 10

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James Guild

Southeast Asia’s Uneven Tourism Recovery, Explained

The region's major tourism markets are still struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels – with one exception.

12.08.2025 8

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James Guild

Indonesia’s Recent Banking Boom, Explained

The COVID-19 pandemic swelled the bottom line of the country's big commercial banks, but growth rates are likely to slow.

07.08.2025 7

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James Guild

What’s the Deal With Trump’s Trade Agreements in Southeast Asia?

Three nations have now brokered similar trade agreements with the mercurial U.S. president, although little is set in stone.

29.07.2025 6

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James Guild

Trump’s Trade Deal With Indonesia, Explained

Indonesian exports to the U.S. will be subject to a 19 percent tariff – for now – but otherwise there is a lot that could change.

24.07.2025 6

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James Guild

Why Indonesia Now Has Two State-Owned Investment Funds

Danantara and the Indonesia Investment Authority differ considerably in terms of their function within Indonesia's political economy.

15.07.2025 8

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James Guild

How Indonesia Is Using Its Green Sukuk

The increasing use of these Islamic financial instruments reflects the growing sophistication of Indonesia's capital markets.

02.07.2025 6

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James Guild

Why Thailand Shelved the ‘Digital Wallet’ Scheme

The multibillion-dollar stimulus plan did little to address the longer-term structural challenges facing the Thai economy.

19.06.2025 6

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James Guild

Why the National Energy Transition Roadmap Makes Sense for Malaysia

As in other areas of the country's energy sector, the state is playing a leading role in developing renewable energy projects.

11.06.2025 4

The Diplomat

James Guild

Why Vietnam Is Cutting Down Payments to Renewable Energy Developers

To attract investment, Vietnam's state-owned electricity company EVN agreed to pay power producers above-market rates. Now the bill has come due.

04.06.2025 10

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James Guild

How Realistic is Vingroup’s $61 Billion High Speed Rail Plan?

The Vietnamese conglomerate has a history of throwing itself into ambitious projects for which it has little or no previous experience.

27.05.2025 8

The Diplomat

James Guild

China, France, and the Political Economy of Defense Modernization in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian nations have tended to lean toward European partners in their quest for military modernization. Could China present an affordable...

21.05.2025 6

The Diplomat

James Guild

The Rise and Fall, and Rise Again, of Sea Ltd

The Southeast Asian tech giant has just come off its best year yet, and finally appears to be on a path toward stable profits.

13.05.2025 6

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James Guild

The PhilHealth Supreme Court Case, Explained

The state-run insurance giant, which is flush with cash, is resisting government orders to transfer surplus funds back to the Treasury.

08.05.2025 10

The Diplomat

James Guild

LG’s Exit from a Mega-Battery Project in Indonesia, Explained

Does the South Korean firm's withdrawal spell trouble for Jakarta's policy of industrial downstreaming?

02.05.2025 7

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James Guild

China’s Bet on Railways in Southeast Asia Is Starting to Pay Off

For all its attendant controversies, Beijing's focus on transport infrastructure is closely aligned with the region's development priorities.

24.04.2025 6

The Diplomat

James Guild

Why ASEAN Countries Often Run Trade Surpluses

Many of the region's economies have pursued a model of export-oriented industrialization that was once championed and encouraged by Washington.

15.04.2025 10

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James Guild

Trade, Tariffs and Trump in Southeast Asia

The tariffs will disrupt existing production networks and increase costs, while damaging Washington's image and relations with the region.

09.04.2025 10

The Diplomat

James Guild

Why Grab Wants to Acquire Indonesia’s GoTo for $7 Billion

If successful, the deal will create a ride-hailing and delivery giant that would dominate Southeast Asian markets.

01.04.2025 4

The Diplomat

James Guild

US Private Equity Is Making Interesting Moves in the Indo-Pacific

Have recent acquisitions by major U.S. firms been made on the basis of commercial considerations, or is there a geopolitical motive at play?

25.03.2025 9

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James Guild

Are Investors Pulling Out of Southeast Asia?

ACross the region, international markets are responding to the growing level of uncertainty and risk in the global economy.

19.03.2025 10

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James Guild

The Scandal at Indonesia’s State-Owned Energy Firm Pertamina, Explained

Five oil executives have been arrested for importing fuel at inflated prices. What explains the timing?

11.03.2025 20

The Diplomat

James Guild

Singapore’s Budget 2025, Explained

Above-target tax revenues have pushed the city-state back into fiscal surplus for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

05.03.2025 10

The Diplomat

James Guild