Democrats are excitedly touting the results of Tuesday night’s elections, contending they show that the public is tiring of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. They should instead take a page from Larry David and curb their enthusiasm.

The question is not whether the Democrats had a relatively good night — they did. Their candidates cut the Republican margin in two Florida House special elections by more than half compared to Trump’s 2024 margin, and they easily won the hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

The real question is why they had a good night. If they did well because they were persuading prior Trump backers to vote for Democrats, that would be a good sign for their 2026 chances. But that’s not what mostly happened.

Democrats have overperformed their expectations in special and spring elections for most of the Trump era. Their increasing tilt toward highly educated white people, who tend to vote more regularly, means the lower the turnout, the higher the share of Democrats in the special election electorate.

The June 2017 special election for South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District is a case in point. Turnout was extremely low in this historically safe GOP seat, a mere 18.34%. The Democrat held Republican Ralph Norman to a mere 51%, a 3-point margin. 

The same two candidates squared off in the........

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