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How Gavin Newsom uses statistics to mislead about California crime

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tuesday

There is a popular phrase about “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The last of those three has become a particular favorite of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) as he tries to shed the soft-on-crime label he has earned himself and the state of California.

Newsom has been on a yearslong kick of lambasting Republicans on social media using crime statistics. He has touted that the statistics show that California is not the paradise for criminals that Republicans portray it as. As one example, when Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) told Newsom to focus on “the lawlessness and crime in San Francisco instead of auditioning for the 2028 Presidential primary with stale talking points,” Newsom responded, “Your state’s homicide rate is 117% higher than California’s.”

Your state’s homicide rate is 117% higher than California’s. https://t.co/3cJB702klb

It’s a great point if you are exactly the kind of gullible Californian who elected Newsom to any of the offices in which he has failed. In reality, it fails to hold up to any scrutiny. For example, Missouri’s homicide rate is driven by the city of St. Louis, which has the highest homicide rate in the country and has been run by Newsom’s fellow Democrats going back to 1949. St. Louis is a Democrat-run city, like nearly all of the most violent cities in the country.

But the misleading nature of Newsom’s point goes beyond a rudimentary examination of the politics of St. Louis. Newsom uses homicides, one of the only positive data points for California, because he cannot actually argue that California is less violent than most states. As the liberal outlet PolitiFact pointed out, FBI data from........

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