Here’s a clue that the off-year elections in November 2026 may not go the way conventional wisdom suggests. That conventional wisdom is that the president’s party almost always loses the House and, slightly less often, Senate seats. 

There are two structural reasons for this. One is that parties in power tend to do things or produce results that some voters dislike. The second reason is that out-party candidates can adapt to local terrain, focusing on issues on which the president’s party’s stands are unpopular. But that depends on the out-party being an acceptable alternative. 

Which leads to the clue referred to above. Politico’s Andrew Howard reports that former Democrats Brian Bengs in South Dakota (Trump 29 in 2024) and Todd Achilles in Idaho (Trump 36) are joining former Democrat Dan Osborn of Nebraska (Trump 20) to run for senator as self-declared independents, with no credible Democrat in the race. 

Osborn did so in 2024, scaring incumbent Republican Rep. Deb Fischer while losing by only 6 points. This was an improvement on Greg Orman’s 2014 independent candidacy in Kansas, where he lost by 11 points in a state that was 22 Republican for president two years before. 

Why are these Democrats, some in states such as South Dakota and Nebraska that have reelected Democratic senators in recent years, shunning the Democratic label? Most likely because, in a country of increased straight-ticket........

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