Wales, for the first time in a quarter of a century, is not the political outlier. The marking of a year to go until the Senedd elections was probably not on the radar of most people in Wales. Understandable, yet the election in May 2026 promises to be transformative and will be subject to political forces rippling across countries all over the world.

Moreover, and significantly, the degree of public engagement and eventual turnout, as well as the extent of proper scrutiny of what comes out of the mouths of politicians will likely determine the outcome and shape who represents us in the new Senedd.

Regrettably, and more than ever, politics is now polarised into us and them; binary debates, often conducted in a simplistic, policy-lite environment; presidential in style, with personality and social media reach dominant factors. Never mind the quality or competence, feel the populism. Is he or she ‘someone you'd like to have a pint with’ even?!

Whilst understandable after years of shambolic global leadership, this is problematic at a time when the most important personality traits for delivery in office remain proper values and a commitment to public service, along with competence, calmness and consistency. The recent election verdicts of the Americans, Canadians and Australians reflect the powerful, opposing twin forces that voters are navigating.

Our next national election is going to be a game-changing one. 96 seats across 16 unfamiliar mega-constituencies up for grabs in an enlarged Welsh Parliament. Members elected using a tightly party-controlled, closed list PR system - the compromise forced on reformers. A system which, on the one hand is more proportional, but one which also requires a threshold of between 12 (or even higher) percentage of votes cast to win any representation in Cardiff Bay.

This week fired the starting gun for what will be quite some election campaign. Set all of this against a dramatic new political context. And where to start with that!

The recent mayoral and local elections in England underlines, if not the death then the near end of British two-party dominance, even with its first-past-the-post voting system. In Wales, the multi-party system is far more entrenched, although we too share the uncertainty around the longer-term impact of Reform UK. All those years ago, when I was an undergraduate student at LSE, we studied the embryonic concept of party dealignment amongst voters. It’s what it says on the tin, an analysis of the unravelling of the cultural and ideological binds to parties based largely on class and education. Well, we are properly dealigned by now for sure!

It's an understatement to say that this is hugely problematic for Welsh Labour. Set aside the party’s self-inflicted travails of the past year or so, it's a simple fact that a party that has been in power for so long (over a century in the wider sense, and over 26 years under devolution), with a largely underwhelming record, faces a near impossible challenge to excite the electorate, especially in such grim political and economic times. Neither the language of delivery (just look at the stats, most of which are scarcely budging), or of change and renewal (from what, and to what?) will........

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