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Australia can’t expect ‘business as usual’ with Trump 2.0. So what’s the plan?

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yesterday

Anthony Albanese brands himself as a calm, methodical, statesmanlike leader. Indeed, that’s exactly how he characterised his dealings with Donald Trump in the hours after their February 10 phone call.

“We’ve been working calmly and methodically and diplomatically, as we do, with nations to defend Australia’s interest and to advance Australia’s interests,” the prime minister said.

Illustration by Simon LetchCredit:

It seemed to work. Trump agreed to consider an exemption for Australia on steel and aluminium tariffs, and permitted Albanese to say that publicly.

Since then, of course, things have gone south. Trump didn’t grant anyone an exemption; in fact, he hiked the tariffs to 50 per cent. His Department of Defence initiated a review of the AUKUS pact, headed by an AUKUS sceptic, and he bailed on a meeting with Albanese at the G7 to deal with the Middle East.

To be fair, Trump has repeatedly called Albanese a nice guy: an important hurdle to clear with a president for whom personal relationships are pivotal. It may yet turn out to be what saves AUKUS. The day the Pentagon review lands on Trump’s desk, Albanese will want him to be thinking: “Oh, yeah, that nice fellow from Down Under.”

But things are moving quickly and unpredictably in Washington. There is a sense that – at least in defence and foreign affairs – some of the chaos and disorder of Trump’s first term has returned.

Mike Waltz, creator of the infamous Signal group chat, was binned as national security adviser on May 1. Trump then installed Secretary of State Marco Rubio as interim adviser, and began to gut and restructure the National Security Council. The aim was to slash bureaucratic fat: Rubio told Axios he was “right-sizing” the outfit in line with Trump’s vision.

Whether by accident or design, we are now seeing the outcome. Important decisions are being made unilaterally, with key partners caught off guard. That appears to be the case for at least two recent matters: the Pentagon’s AUKUS probe, and a pause in the supply of defensive weaponry to Ukraine.

“He is pissing off just about everyone I know inside the administration.” Elbridge Colby, Trump’s under-secretary of defence, is making waves in Washington.Credit: Bloomberg

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