How a three-day invasion has surpassed World War One and threatens global catastrophe

June 10, 2026 — 3:00am

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On Wednesday, the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, will equal the 1567-day length of the First World War. Like that war, which many thought would be over within months, the Ukraine war was meant to be brief. The Russians thought they could win it in three days, but were stopped then bravely pushed back by a gallant counter-attack. Despite this, most expected the larger Russia to eventually prevail, especially after US President Donald Trump appeared to take Vladimir Putin’s side. But it’s the Ukrainians who now have the upper hand on the battlefield, in the air, and economically, and the Russians who are faltering.

Four years and four months on, the killing continues. How quickly time passes, how blasé we become about large-scale endless human slaughter, and how easily we convince ourselves that big wars are history. What can we learn from the failures to end the Great War and the Ukraine War that might save us from another, potentially even larger, catastrophe?

First up, how valid is the comparison?

Let’s start with the casualty figures. Two weeks ago, the head of the British intelligence agency GCHQ estimated that almost half a million Russian soldiers have died so far and that (combining dead and injured) Vladimir Putin’s forces are currently suffering around 30,000 casualties per month. According to official statistics, the British Army lost over 560,000 dead on the Western Front between 1914 and 1918 and averaged 46,000 total casualties per month. Ukraine’s losses, though lower, also dwarf the losses of modern wars like those in........

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