Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive with a commanding lead in the New York City mayoral race, has placed universal child care at the center of his campaign, returning to it again and again as one of a few key policies that could redefine what City Hall delivers. He’s promising to make child care free for every New Yorker from 6 weeks to 5 years old, while raising child care workers’ wages to match public school teachers.

It’s easy to see why the city’s child care system needs reform. Families with children under 6 are leaving New York City at twice the rate of everyone else. More than 80 percent of families with young children can’t afford care that runs upward of $20,000 a year, and the flight of young families is costing the city an estimated $23 billion annually in lost economic productivity. “It’s not just parents with young children — child care and caregiving is also something that really affects grandparents and many older adults too,” said Louise Yeung, the policy director for Mandami’s campaign.

Still, it’s an unusual gamble, especially when most New Yorkers don’t have young children. Few would openly dispute that child care matters, but the harder question is whether a politician should stake their campaign on an issue that’s less salient to voters than it may initially seem.

Mamdani’s campaign builds on a fundamental shift in how Democrats have started to talk about child care over the last half-decade. After the pandemic, leaders began to talk about it less as a private........

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