When it comes to the escalating trade war with China, the most obvious historical analogy for the US launching an all-out economic assault on a rising military power in East Asia is not an encouraging one.

Starting in 1940, the US, alarmed by Imperial Japan’s invasion of China and burgeoning alliance with Nazi Germany, began passing a series of increasingly severe restrictions on exports of the raw materials needed by the Japanese military. These eventually culminated in a complete freeze on Japanese funds and assets held in the US and an embargo on oil exports. The hope was that this would force Japan, overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports, to curb its military ambitions.

Instead, believing war with the United States to be inevitable, the Japanese launched a preemptive strike on the American fleet at Pearl Harbor.

We’re not quite there yet, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the trade war between the world’s two most powerful countries is taking place within the context of growing military tension. Just as President Donald Trump was first announcing his tariffs at the beginning of April, the Chinese military was wrapping up its latest live-fire drills around Taiwan. Though demonstrations like these have become relatively common as tensions have grown in the Taiwan Strait, the latest drills were significantly larger and, some analysts believe, revealed significant details about the tactics China is likely to use to take the island.

Those drills came along with recent reports of “invasion barges” China may use to bring troops ashore on Taiwan, accusations that Chinese ships are intentionally severing undersea internet cables, and a host of flare-ups in long-running territorial conflicts involving China’s neighbors Japan and the Philippines.

The juxtaposition of these shows of military dominance with Trump’s “Liberation Day” — led by a 54 percent tariff on Chinese goods, which has since risen to 145 percent as China has retaliated with tariffs of its own — is a reminder that the trade war can’t be separated from wider geopolitical tensions.

Though they’re sometimes discussed as somewhat separate issues in the US, the Chinese government has made clear it sees little distinction. “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” China’s foreign ministry posted on X after the White House announced the first round of tariffs in March.

While recent comments from the White House and reports from Beijing suggest the two sides may be looking to cut back on at least some........

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