It’s possible that three years of fighting between Russia and Ukraine could end — at least temporarily— in a matter of weeks. It’s more likely it could continue for months or even years.

US and allied intelligence agencies have concluded Russia is probably not serious about making peace, which means the war would continue. If that happens, who will supply Ukraine with weapons? Possibly the United States. But after the events of the past few weeks, Ukraine and its European allies certainly can’t assume American aid will continue.

Inside this story

• What the US provides Ukraine that Europe can’t
• One major challenge to getting Ukraine help
• A potential conflict of interest for European countries

The US announced a pause in military aid for Ukraine earlier this week a few days after a disastrous Oval Office meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, then suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine as well.

It’s still possible the rift might be repaired. During his address to Congress this week, Trump said he had received a letter from Zelenskyy in which the Ukrainian leader said he was ready for peace. Ukraine has also expressed a willingness to sign a deal that imploded last week, which would allow the US to profit from some of the country’s natural resources, though there are also reports that the US may try to link a deal to Ukraine agreeing to a quick ceasefire.

In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, during which he confirmed the pause in intelligence-sharing, CIA Director John Ratcliffe suggested the aid pause would be temporary, and was merely a means to push Ukraine to the negotiating table.

In what seems to be a shift in tone at least, Trump threatened new sanctions and tariffs against Russia on Friday unless Moscow agrees to a ceasefire. (The US already has wide-ranging sanctions in place against Russia, and there isn’t much trade between the two countries. It’s not quite clear what new measures Trump has in mind.) Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron has been developing a plan for a one-month ceasefire to be applied “in the air, at sea, and on energy infrastructure,” but not along the front lines, in order to test Russia’s seriousness about agreeing to a more comprehensive peace deal. In a primetime address on Wednesday, Macron told the French public, “I want to believe that the US will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case.”

On Thursday, European leaders convened for a summit in which they discussed plans to increase........

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