After a dramatic week that saw both the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine and an unprecedented flurry of diplomatic activity, it’s becoming possible to see what a real — if far from ideal — agreement to end the bloody conflict might look like. But to know whether an agreement is actually achievable or realistic would require being inside the heads of two of the most inscrutable men on the planet: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

This week, Washington and Kyiv reached a deal to exploit Ukraine’s mineral resources. A plan emerged for a potential European peacekeeping force to be deployed to Ukraine after the war is over. And a visit to Washington by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is imminent.

Both developments suggest Ukraine and European countries are working to make the best of a situation where the US can no longer be counted on to be on Ukraine’s side.

Can minerals save the US-Ukraine relationship?

Last week, relations between the US and Ukraine seemed to have reached a nadir.

The US dispatched senior negotiators to meet their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine present — breaking a longstanding promise. The US tried to get Zelenskyy to sign over half of Ukraine’s critical minerals as reimbursement for past American support. Trump referred to Zelenskyy as a “dictator” for not holding elections during wartime. (He later declined to apply the same description to Putin.)

Then, on Monday, signs of a major pro-Russian shift continued: The US twice sided with Russia over Ukraine and its European allies at the United Nations. First, the US voted to oppose a resolution in the general assembly that condemned Russia’s invasion. Then it supported a resolution in the security council that called for an end to the conflict but contained no criticism of Russia.

But then, on Tuesday, the US and Ukraine signed a revised version of the long-promised minerals deal. Zelenskyy will travel to the US on Friday to sign the agreement.

Ukraine is believed to have significant reserves of critical minerals like lithium and graphite, as well as “rare earth” metals, such as scandium and neodymium. China currently dominates the supply chains for these minerals, which have a variety of high-tech applications. (Some analysts are skeptical that Ukraine’s reserves are really as large as is being advertised.) A significant amount of these reserves are believed to be in territory currently occupied by Russia, and Putin was quick to say this week that he would also be open to a partnership with the US to develop them.

Before Trump took office, Ukrainian officials hoped to leverage the country’s mineral wealth to ensure future US........

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