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The questionable assumption fueling the stock market rally

3 30
10.04.2025
President Donald Trump gestures while speaking during an executive order signing event in the Oval Office on March 31, 2025. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Donald Trump beat a partial — and possibly temporary — retreat from the most radical version of his trade agenda Wednesday.

One week ago, he vowed to impose massive new tariffs on virtually all imports from nearly all countries. Although rates varied by nation, many countries faced tariffs of more than 30 percent. Trump branded these duties “reciprocal tariffs,” claiming (falsely) that they mirrored foreign nations’ trade barriers to American goods. The policy triggered a stock market collapse and upended countless businesses dependent on foreign suppliers for goods or parts.

For days, Trump refused to back down in the face of such economic turmoil. But on Wednesday — when the tariffs were scheduled to take effect — he changed his trade policy. In a Truth Social post, Trump announced that — for all nations besides China — he was lowering his “reciprocal” tariffs to 10 percent for the next 90 days, while he negotiated with America’s trade partners.

At the same time, Trump actually escalated his trade war with China, announcing a blanket, 125 percent tariff on Chinese imports. This marked the culmination of a week-long, tit-for-tat volley of tariffs between Beijing and Washington. Now, with US imports facing an 84 percent tariff in China, more or less all trade between the world’s two greatest economic powers has ceased.

Nevertheless, stock markets soared following Trump’s announcement, with the S&P 500 seeing its biggest rally in five years.

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