For the past two years, Donald Trump and the Republican Party could reasonably claim to have broad support for their anti-immigrant agenda. The public wanted less immigration, Trump promised to provide it, and much of the public trusted him to act.

But things look a lot different now that he’s actually implementing that agenda.

After a years-long surge in opposition to immigration, Americans’ views seem to be getting more positive toward it, a score of new data suggest. And while there’s still some support for some of Trump’s policies, Americans are souring on the extreme parts of Trump’s approach.

Six months into Trump’s term, the American public’s tendency to swing in the opposite direction of the president’s policy vision seems to be reaching immigration as well. And compounding this apparent “thermostatic” shift is that it’s happening as Trump actually achieves what he promised. Crossings at the southern border hit a historic low last month, and he has secured billions in additional funding for border security and expanded enforcement operations.

What gives? Is the public really that fickle? Is Trump overreaching? And perhaps more importantly, will this shift be durable? The data we have offers some mixed answers, but it largely points in a worrisome direction for Trump and his party. As with the economy, government efficiency, foreign policy, and trade, Americans seemed to like Trump’s ideas in theory. Seeing them in practice is another matter.

What we know for sure: The public is warming to immigration

The high-quality public opinion data we have shows a pretty dramatic reversal in the public’s attitudes toward immigration. That shift is astounding given how aggressively the public was embracing an anti-immigrant attitude during the Biden years.

As a refresher: Worsened by record asylum claims and spikes in border crossings, public sentiment moved quickly toward restrictionism and in favor of Trump’s campaign proposals. Effective

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