Democrats aren’t the only ones celebrating after the 2025's elections. So are political pollsters.

Although the polling industry materially undercounted the backing for the winning candidates and causes, pollsters accurately foretold the outcomes.

Unlike 2024, when poll after poll failed to detect Republican President Donald Trump’s resounding comeback, the Democratic Party's gains this month were rightly predicted, although underestimated, especially in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans should heed the early warning signs for 2026.

Still, public opinion researchers shouldn’t congratulate themselves too heartily. What I have seen across political, consumer and societal research after nearly two decades in polling is that the misses aren’t random. They all come from the same structural issue: Polling was built for a world where behavior was stable, subgroups were broad and change occurred slowly. Insurgent movements in the mold of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont – personified by New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani – don’t behave that way.

In today’s atomized world, coalitional shifts happen faster than ever. The right-wing........

© USA TODAY