The legal tsunami Israeli pundits have long warned of may be fast approaching. On the same day 27 Western states issued a public statement warning of “further action” in support of an immediate ceasefire if the conflict in Gaza continues, two Israeli soldiers accused of war crimes were arrested and questioned by Belgian authorities.

In international law, states may be held accountable for their crimes in one of two ways: the state itself may be the target of sanctions or expulsion from international organisations, and its officials and their subordinates who commit, order, aid, abet, or assist such crimes may be prosecuted before international and domestic courts.

Last week, the Emergency Conference of The Hague Group brought together 30 like-minded Global South states in Bogota, Colombia, to move beyond words of condemnation and take collective action grounded in international law. 

Twelve of these states agreed to the immediate implementation of six measures, including stopping arms transfers to Israel and prosecuting international crimes in their national jurisdictions on the basis of universal jurisdiction. They invited other states to join them before the opening of the next UN General Assembly in September.

The arrests in Belgium were facilitated by the Hind Rajab Foundation and the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN), which are undertaking similar work in multiple jurisdictions. Both organisations were behind previous investigations that forced a holidaying Israeli soldier to flee Brazil last year, and two soldiers to flee Amsterdam in February. 

Their message is clear: Israeli soldiers accused of crimes in Gaza can never be sure when their turn will come.

Are these measures the start of a real break in impunity — and the beginning of coordinated legal and political action to hold Israel accountable for its crimes in Gaza, where its armed forces have killed more than 59,000 people – mostly women and children – over 21 months? 

Or will these accountability efforts remain confined to the Global South and civil society?

Israel in the dock

There are reasons to think that policymakers in Western capitals are

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