Just over six months into his second presidency, Donald Trump is reshaping global trade diplomacy with the same aggressive unpredictability that defined his first term. For India, his return has not only revived tough tariff threats but also upended the delicate strategic balance it built with the United States in recent years.

In April, Trump proposed a 26 percent tariff on a range of imports, including Indian goods, unless a bilateral deal is struck by his July 9 deadline. While the administration granted a temporary 90-day suspension, pressure on New Delhi is mounting.

On July 4, India formally notified the World Trade Organization of its intent to impose retaliatory duties equivalent to the US auto tariffs ($725 million), reserving the right to suspend existing concessions. At the same time, India entered high-level trade talks in Washington to secure an interim agreement and avoid the tariff spike.

But so far, those overtures have made little difference.

At the centre of the trade standoff is agriculture, a cornerstone of India’s economy and a flashpoint in US-India relations.

Washington is pressing for greater market access for GM crops and American dairy products, but experts believe that such imports could harm India’s smallholder farmers while raising health, cultural, and environmental concerns. 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday that New Delhi will not be rushed. “India is in no hurry to sign a trade deal,” he said, emphasising that any agreement must align with national interest and not be driven by “arbitrary deadlines or external expectations.”

Experts increasingly see this moment as part of a

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