Even as the world is consumed by the war in the Middle East, there is a growing sense that something is about to unfold in Cuba. Yet whatever the United States may have in store for the island seems less like a strategy for Cuba itself than a response to another problem.

The world of the Cold War is gone, and so is the one that came after it. From the election of Hugo Chavez as President of Venezuela in 1998 to the early hours of Jan. 3, when his successor Nicolas Maduro was forcibly removed by the U.S., the Castro regime acted as the Chavismo project’s political mentor. Caracas bailed out Cuba by sending millions of barrels of oil to fill the gaping economic hole left by the collapse of the Soviet Union, its chief sponsor and political mentor until the early 90s. In return, Cuba sent doctors, teachers, and security agents to Venezuela.

Now, Caracas is becoming a U.S. protectorate, and Havana may soon follow the same path. Maduro’s capture and extraction alarmed the Cuban leadership. They have accepted, almost in silence and as never before, the humiliation of hearing an American president talk about Cuba with contempt, treating it as a mere formality, as though it already belonged to him. 

Cuba has no oil, no rare earths, no major natural resources. Yet the government still clings, against all odds, to what remains of the Cuban revolution’s political prestige. At this point it might have been better for Castroism to preserve nothing at all, because in the geopolitical theater of a post-neoliberal world, the fall of the regime could serve Washington as a consolation prize. If things go badly in Iran, as they seem to be, Havana may end up paying the price. Empires in decline take revenge on their lesser enemies. Cuba under........

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