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In the mid-2024, India was buying more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, some 43-44% of its imports, from Russia. In August 2025, the US imposed 25% additional tariffs on India for buying Russian crude and thereafter Indian refiners began ‘diversifying’. Between December 2025-February 2026, volumes purchased declined to 1-1.2 million bpd amounting to less than 25 % of imports.

Then, the US suddenly decided India could again buy Russian oil. Indian refiners moved swiftly, sharply ramping up purchases of discounted Russian crude. They bought 30 million barrels in the first fortnight of March alone. For April they booked 60 million barrels. Incidentally, they are now paying premiums of $5-$15 per barrel where they earlier were getting discounts.

The 30-day waiver expired on April 11 and the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent declared there would be no waiver. But better sense prevailed, and two days later the waiver was extended for another month, driven by fears of supply shortages and price spikes. Minus the waiver, India would have found itself in a classic energy bind – squeezed between a US waiver that had lapsed and a Strait of Hormuz that remains contested.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

The US veto on when India can, or cannot, buy energy from Russia or Iran seems to now have been embedded into India’s energy policy. Even as it has tilted towards Washington in its current West Asia crisis, India is finding that US policies work to its detriment, especially when it comes to energy security.

Actually, the current developments, driven by the economic shockwaves of the West Asian conflict, have handed India an opportunity to quietly revive the relationship with Russia and restate its strategic autonomy. No one really planned this, but it would be strategic folly not to exploit it.

The opportunity seems to go well beyond oil. For years, New Delhi cowered beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) 2017 that threatened US sanctions on any “significant transactions” on the defence procurement front from Russia. That threat helped delay, though never derail, the $5.43 billion S-400 air defence deal signed in 2018. Russia is now completing the original five-regiment S-400 contract: the fourth squadron is due in May-June 2026, the fifth by November.

Emboldened by West Asian developments, New Delhi has moved decisively. In February 2026, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) cleared the purchase of 288 additional S-400 missiles at a cost of roughly $1.1 billion, to replenish stocks depleted during Sindoor. On March 3, India signed a Rs 2,812 crore ($236-238 million) deal for vertical-launch Shtil missiles for the Indian Navy. Then, in late March 2026, the DAC approved a Rs 2.38 trillion ($25 billion) defence package that included five additional S-400 systems worth approximately $6.1 billion as well as one worth Rs 858 crore ($100........

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