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The past year has been one of the most consequential in Iran’s modern history. The country has fought two wars, faced a major popular uprising, and lost the supreme leader who had dominated its political landscape since 1989. Now, after a five-week war, Tehran appears poised to conclude a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States that could well redefine its place in the regional and global order.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

Paradoxically, these upheavals seem to have created an opportunity for the Islamic Republic rather than a crisis. Having survived an intense confrontation with two of the world’s leading military powers and emerged battered but standing, Iran may now have a final chance to realise the potential that geography, resources and human capital have long promised. The country could yet become the regional power it has always had the capacity to be.

The war on Iran that began on February 28 has been a strategic failure for the US-Israeli coalition. The war was not aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz; the water was already open when the first bombs fell. Neither was it about diluting Iran nuclear capacity; Iran had already agreed to that in talks mediated by Oman days before the war was launched.

The war was about bringing about a collapse of the Iranian state and to that end, the US and Israel assassinated the leader who had actually forbidden the country from making nuclear weapons. Now headed by Mojtaba Khamanei as supreme leader, Iran today is more coherent and confident even though the country suffered massive damage in the war.

The peace deal that is to be signed on Friday in Geneva is an indication of the Iranian achievement. Details of the agreement have not been revealed. But according to Iran’s Mehr news agency it involves:

Permanent and immediate end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

US commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.

US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran.

Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, under Iranian arrangements.

Suspension of sanctions on oil and petrochemical product sales and derivatives, and full Iranian access to its financial resources.

Reconstruction plans to be presented by the US and its allies, totalling at least $300 billion.

A 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on the nuclear issue and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, UN Security Council resolutions, and IAEA Board of Governors........

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