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Alberta’s Flirtation with Separatism Gives Quebec That Familiar Feeling

As the western province considers leaving Canada, sovereigntists in la belle province are watching closely

As Albertans prepare to test the idea of leaving Canada this coming October, their most attentive observers may be found about 3,500 kilometres away in Quebec, where sovereigntists will be studying the outcome for lessons into their own long-stalled project.

Strictly speaking, Alberta isn’t holding a referendum on separation. Voters are being asked whether the province should begin the legal process that might lead to a binding referendum. In other words, it’s a pre-referendum referendum. A question about a question. That detour reflects the constraints of Canada’s Clarity Act, which requires a clear question and a clear majority before the federal government negotiates a province’s secession. By proposing a non-binding vote on the process rather than separation itself, Premier Danielle Smith is keeping Alberta one step removed from that framework.

Canada’s previous encounters with secession were far less coy. Quebec has twice asked direct and binding—albeit, convoluted—questions on independence. First in 1980, then again in 1995. Both referendums ended in a no vote. The second one in particular was quite the squeaker with the Yes side only managing a razor-thin win. (That shock ultimately led Ottawa to pass the Clarity Act’s ground rules for any bid to leave Confederation.)

But a lot has changed since then. In the past few decades, support within Quebec for independence has sputtered—even petered out completely—with interest in sovereignty at a thirty-year low. The reasons aren’t hard to find. Quebec has won increased recognition of its distinct cultural and linguistic character and secured significantly more jurisdictional autonomy than any other province. It sets its own immigration levels and criteria, maintains its own legal framework, operates its own public pension plan, collects its own taxes, and exercises broad powers to protect the French language. As a result, it’s become harder and harder for sovereigntists to persuade Quebecers they would be better off leaving a country that consistently ranks among the world’s most livable.

But if Quebecers have become less convinced by the case for independence,........

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