Wars are usually measured in bombs dropped and lives lost. Yet their most enduring costs often emerge later, in the form of mass displacement and refugee crises that reshape societies for decades. The war now unfolding between Israel, the United States, and Iran may already be laying the foundations for the next such catastrophe. For Washington, the stakes go beyond military outcomes: failing to anticipate humanitarian fallout could exacerbate regional instability, strain U.S. allies, and create crises that reverberate far beyond the battlefield.

In 2015, more than a million people fleeing war in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq flooded into Europe, overwhelming borders, reshaping politics, and shaking the cohesion of the European Union. Today, as the current war intensifies and major cities face sustained bombardment, a similar crisis could be unfolding, this time with Iran at its center. A humanitarian catastrophe may already be emerging, threatening to uproot millions within Iran and beyond and disrupting the fragile social fabric of the region.

No matter how the war ends, regime change, ceasefire, or stalemate, millions of Iranians could remain displaced. All wars produce refugees, and this one is unlikely to be different. But the conflict of 2026 is unique in one important respect: the toll of violence and instability is now compounded by a systemic domestic collapse decades in the making. Even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, the foundations of a prolonged refugee crisis may already have been laid. What remains uncertain is the magnitude and the human stories that will emerge from it.

Since the onset of the war, Tehran has witnessed scenes not seen since the Iran–Iraq War. In the first 48 hours after large-scale U.S. and Israeli airstrikes........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)