Is a New Middle East Taking Shape?

History teaches us that wars do not truly end on the battlefield. Military victories become meaningful only when they are transformed into political achievements. That is precisely why the emerging reports of a possible U.S.-brokered agreement between Israel and Lebanon deserve close attention. If such an agreement materializes, it could become one of the most consequential diplomatic developments in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords.

The central question is simple: can Israel’s military achievements against Hezbollah and Iran ultimately pave the way for a genuine peace agreement with Lebanon?

For the first time in decades, there appears to be a window of opportunity. Lebanon today is not the Lebanon of the past. Years of economic collapse, political paralysis, corruption, and the devastating consequences of Hezbollah’s military adventures have exhausted much of the Lebanese public. Many Lebanese increasingly understand that Hezbollah, once viewed by many as a protector, has also become a burden that has isolated their country internationally and prevented its recovery.

Yet public sentiment alone cannot produce peace.

The real test lies in whether the Lebanese state is both willing and capable of reclaiming full sovereignty over its territory. Any agreement with Israel will ultimately depend on one fundamental condition: that Hezbollah no longer possesses the military capability to dictate Lebanon’s national security policy or threaten........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)