Here is a question that nobody in Washington dares to ask: what if the apparent American stumble in the Iran war is not a stumble at all? What if the prolonged conflict, the Strait of Hormuz closure, the skyrocketing oil prices, and the diplomatic theatre in Islamabad are not signs of strategic failure but of a ruthlessly rational calculation — one best understood not through international relations theory, but through option pricing?

In financial markets, a straddle is a position in which the trader profits from extreme movement in either direction. The trader does not need to predict whether the price will go up or down — only that volatility itself will be large. Donald Trump, whether by instinct or design, has constructed something remarkably similar in the Persian Gulf.

Consider the architecture of the current situation. The February 28 strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and decimated Iran’s military command structure. That was the call option — a massive upside bet on regime collapse. But Iran did not collapse. Instead, it closed the Strait of Hormuz, throttling twenty per cent of the world’s oil supply. Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel. QatarEnergy declared force majeure. Gulf Cooperation Council states saw food imports drop by seventy per cent overnight.

Here is where the straddle pays off on the other leg. In the eight weeks since the strait closure, US oil and petroleum exports have surged to a record 12.9 million barrels per day. Crude........

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