We do not get the real image from the news. Netanyahu is probably ok if Eisenkot’s party comes in first, as he knows Eisenkot almost certainly cannot form a coalition, that he himself probably can’t either, and that Israel will probably head for yet another round of election. As time passes, Eisenkot only dropping in numbers with each cycle, as the surprise “new toy” effect wares down.

Netanyahu, on the whole, has every reason to be content. He doesn’t even need a war before election day, though he still wants one. He doesn’t mind staying prime minister of an endless transition government. 

The relevant question is not whether Likud remains at 32 seats. It is whether the voters who have left Likud in the polls have left the right-wing/religious electoral universe. My argument is that most have not.

Likud 32, Shas 11, UTJ 7, Religious Zionism 7, Otzma Yehudit 6,........

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