An Israel–Turkey clash would be extraordinarily costly to both. But the decisive variables are not platform counts: who is attacked, where, which legal basis is activated, and who is obliged – or chooses – to enter. Cyprus sits at the centre of that equation.

Escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean is no longer a purely theoretical possibility. This does not mean that war is inevitable. It does, however, mean that deterrence requires preparation, and that Greece, Cyprus and Israel are already adapting their strategies to an environment of heightened risk.

The presence of Greek F-16s and a Greek frigate in Cyprus, operations by Greek aircraft from Cyprus under bilateral defense agreements, and the visit to Cyprus by the Chief of the Hellenic National Defense General Staff, Greece’s senior military officer, following his contacts in Israel, do not in themselves indicate that war is imminent.

They do, however, indicate that Athens is taking seriously a possibility that, until recently, could more readily have been treated as theoretical.

The region is more tense today than it was a year ago. In such circumstances, a serious incident may not remain contained. The risk of escalation into a broader military crisis is greater.

At its core lies the Turkish military presence in occupied northern Cyprus.

Turkey has maintained substantial military forces and infrastructure in the northern part of the island for 52 years. That presence is one of the givens of Cypriot security and, at the same time, a factor that cannot be ignored in any future planning.

The critical question is what would happen if, amid a dramatic shift in the regional balance, Ankara decided to use that military presence against Israel, the Republic of Cyprus or Greece.

A potential Israel–Turkey confrontation would not unfold in a geopolitical vacuum. Greece is adjacent to the theatre of operations, has close defence ties with Israel and, at the same time, constitutes the other principal pole of the Greek–Turkish confrontation.

From Greece’s perspective, therefore, the crisis cannot be treated as a matter concerning Ankara and Jerusalem alone. A serious Turkish military move in the region could directly affect Greek security.

At this point, a myth........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)