Israel’s leaders are naturally fixated on the war against Iran and Hezbollah’s missiles from Lebanon, but the threat that could ultimately prove most dangerous to their country is the loss of the one ally that has underwritten Israel’s security for half a century: the United States.

The relationship between Israel and the United States has long rested on two pillars: strategic alignment and American public support. For decades, Israel benefited from an overwhelming sympathy among Americans, which translated into bipartisan political backing, diplomatic protection, and extensive military assistance. The results of the recent survey by Gallup suggest that the second pillar is eroding in unprecedented ways. For the first time since Gallup began measuring the question, more Americans say their sympathies lie with Palestinians (41%) than with Israelis (36%).

This shift may appear marginal in statistical terms, or merely confined to the Israeli-Palestinian realm, but its broader and long-term strategic implications cannot be overstated. If sustained over time, the wearing down of American public sympathy constitutes a potentially existential threat to Israeli national security because the Jewish State’s military, diplomatic, and economic resilience has always depended in significant measure on the durability of its relationship with the United States. Should the American public gradually withdraw its support, especially if this trend becomes bipartisan, the political foundations of that relationship could weaken dramatically, degrading Israel’s long-term strategic posture.

Israel’s national security doctrine has historically rested on a combination of internal strength and external American support. Since the late Cold War period, the United States has functioned as Israel’s indispensable ally in several critical areas. First, the United States provides Israel with unparalleled military assistance. U.S. aid ensures Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region and facilitates advanced weapons procurement, intelligence sharing, and technological cooperation. Second, Washington has consistently used its diplomatic weight to shield Israel in international forums, most notably through vetoes in the United Nations Security Council. Third, the United States functions as Israel’s key political advocate within the Western alliance system, oftentimes shaping the broader international discourse around Israel’s legitimacy and security needs.

However, American policy toward Israel does not exist in a vacuum. In democratic systems, foreign policy ultimately depends on domestic political legitimacy. When public opinion shifts significantly, it alters the incentives and constraints politicians and decision-makers face. Therefore, the importance of American public opinion lies not only in its symbolic meaning but in its ability to influence actual policy.

The Gallup findings represent a watershed moment. For roughly a quarter century, Americans consistently expressed far greater sympathy for........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)