For years, we were fed the myth of the brilliant Iranian “chess master.” Commentators and analysts praised Tehran’s leaders as grandmasters of strategy — patient, sophisticated negotiators who were always several moves ahead of their rivals. The narrative was simple: Iran played chess while the West played checkers.

But at the decisive moment of this geopolitical contest, the board has been upended. We have discovered that the ayatollahs are not chess players at all. They are backgammon players — gamblers who mistook a lucky roll of the dice for strategic genius.

In their opening move, the regime bet everything on the “long game” of diplomacy. They were confident that the “shallow and impatient” Western mindset would eventually tire. Their plan was to use the dice of negotiations to stall for time—making tactical concessions, signing hollow agreements, and........

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