For years, we were fed the myth of the brilliant Iranian “chess master.” Commentators and analysts praised Tehran’s leaders as grandmasters of strategy — patient, sophisticated negotiators who were always several moves ahead of their rivals. The narrative was simple: Iran played chess while the West played checkers.

But at the decisive moment of this geopolitical contest, the board has been upended. We have discovered that the ayatollahs are not chess players at all. They are backgammon players — gamblers who mistook a lucky roll of the dice for strategic genius.

In their opening move, the regime bet everything on the “long game” of diplomacy. They were confident that the “shallow and impatient” Western mindset would eventually tire. Their plan was to use the dice of negotiations to stall for time—making tactical concessions, signing hollow agreements, and cheating quietly—until they reached the nuclear finish line.

They believed that once their nuclear “checkers” reached the home board, they would hold the ultimate leverage over the Gulf, global energy markets, and the West.

When that opening failed, they moved to what they imagined was a brilliant second maneuver. They began striking at America’s Gulf allies—the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. In the flawed perception of the “Persian grandmasters,” these were merely pampered petro-states that would panic at the first sign of smoke over their oil fields and pressure Washington to restrain Israel.

They were certain that President Trump would buckle under the “doubling cube” of rising oil prices and domestic political pressure. They left their regional interests exposed like unprotected “blots” on a backgammon board, betting that the West was too risk-averse to hit them.

But they rolled a losing hand.

It is now clear: this was never chess. It was a high-stakes game of backgammon where the regime’s luck finally ran out. They relied on wishful thinking and the hope of a favorable roll, gravely underestimating their neighbors, Israel, and the American president.

They discovered, to their horror, that a Western leader could also possess strategic patience. Few believed the fiery American president would sacrifice short-term economic comfort for long-term security. Fewer still imagined he would negotiate with one hand while preparing a military campaign of unprecedented precision with the other.

Alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu, Washington orchestrated a coordinated strike that caught the self-proclaimed “masters” completely off guard. In a single Saturday morning, the “chess myth” was shattered by the heaviest military strike in decades.

It is still too early to draw final conclusions, but the board looks grim for Tehran. Many of the regime’s supposed strategists are no longer in the game. Their nuclear facilities sit in ruins; their ballistic missile arsenal has been gutted.

While the regime is “on the bar” and struggling to re-enter the game, we await the next move in the American-Israeli campaign—what President Trump calls the “surprises.” The next roll could target the economic jugular at Kharg Island or neutralize Tehran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

Ultimately, the most decisive move may come from within: a popular uprising against a regime that gambled away the nation’s future on a bad roll of the dice.

One thing is certain: the era of the “infallible Persian chess master” is over. The dice have settled, and the house has lost.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)