The uncomfortable question that will not be discussed at the G7 Summit in Evian: Hormuz is much closer to Paris than maps suggest, and Moscow lies almost within Europe’s own backyard.

The signals are multiplying, suggesting that something has changed.

They are coming first from the leading figures of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing.” The German Chancellor is in a very difficult position. France is not faring much better. The United Kingdom is as divided as ever.

President Zelensky has just declared that he is prepared—or perhaps eager—to meet Vladimir Putin face-to-face “to end the war.”

Does Europe still possess the political, economic, demographic, and institutional resources necessary to simultaneously support its own recovery, Ukraine’s reconstruction, and a prolonged confrontation with Russia? The conflict with Iran only increases the stakes for Europe, which cannot maintain its current posture indefinitely.

Behind the ongoing fighting in Ukraine lies a question far larger than the fate of the Donbas or Crimea alone. The war has become a revealing test of the weaknesses and contradictions running through the European continent as a whole. Persistent corruption in Ukraine, Europe’s economic slowdown, the energy crisis, accelerated rearmament, agricultural tensions, and growing uncertainty about American commitment are all factors that, taken together, could push the conflict in a direction very different from what was envisioned at the outset of the war.

THE STRATEGIES AT PLAY

The real question may no longer be who will win the war, but which system can sustain its political, economic, and social costs the longest.

Russia and the Strategy of Time

For Putin, the gains achieved in 2014 are not merely territorial acquisitions.

Crimea has become a central element of Russia’s security architecture, its control of the Black Sea, and the national political narrative constructed over more than a decade.

For the Russian leadership, relinquishing Crimea would amount to acknowledging a major strategic defeat. Such an outcome appears highly unlikely today, regardless of the Kremlin’s future political evolution.

The Russian president now seems to be betting on a strategy of attrition.

His calculation is relatively straightforward: Western democracies are constrained by elections, budgetary pressures, and fluctuations in public opinion. Moscow is wagering that time may gradually weaken Western support for........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)