From the largest uprising in modern Iranian history in January to more than a month of relentless American and Israeli strikes, the past three months have put the Iranian regime under extraordinary pressure. But even as many top leaders were assassinated, the regime did not fall, and there’s an important, underdiscussed reason why: oil.

The regime in Iran earned $43 billion in revenue from crude oil exports and sales in 2024 and billions more from petrochemicals and other adjacent industries. Up to one-third of the state budget comes from oil revenue (significantly down from previous years), and over half of Iran’s total oil proceeds are allocated to its armed forces. Billions of dollars per year more fund regional terror groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and these groups also work in conjunction with Iran’s armed forces to smuggle oil to international buyers so they can fund weapons and terrorist activity with the proceeds.

A clean energy transition alone would not solve the Middle East. But even if oil didn’t create the Islamic Republic, it has repeatedly enabled the regime to project power globally, fund terror proxies across the region, and brutally repress its own people. That is why moving away from oil isn’t just a climate solution, or a solution for today’s volatile gas prices. It’s also a way to cut off the easy money that has made the Iranian regime so dangerous and durable.

Social scientists often reference the “resource curse,” describing a pattern in which countries rich in highly lucrative, easily captured resources often wind up with weaker institutions, more corruption, more political repression, and greater economic volatility. The resource curse has been a hot debate among social scientists for decades, but according to a 2015 literature review, the resource most aligned with the theory is petroleum. Evidence across many studies shows that petroleum wealth tends to make authoritarian regimes more durable, heighten corruption, and in some cases help trigger violent conflict. The review found these regimes may use this revenue to lower taxes and evade accountability, while other times, regimes invest in repression, foreign influence, and armed forces with the aim of preventing an uprising.

If one were to argue........

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