Debates about the current war with Iran highlight an important theoretical divide about escalation and deterrence. The argument developed by Robert A. Pape emphasizes the structural dynamics of escalation in limited wars, while Elli Lieberman offers a framework for escaping escalation traps through credibility, maneuver, and strategic restraint. Taken together, the two approaches illuminate both the causes of escalation and potential strategies for managing it.

Pape’s work, most prominently in Bombing to Win, demonstrates that coercion rarely succeeds without battlefield success. Strategies based on punishment, decapitation, or limited strikes tend to fail because they do not deny the adversary the ability to achieve its strategic objectives. In contemporary conflicts, this dynamic can generate what Pape describes as an escalation trap. Tactical successes—such as precision strikes or targeted attacks—create expectations of strategic gains that rarely materialize.........

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