President Donald Trump’s effort to pressure Ukraine into halting attacks on Russian oil refineries risks producing an outcome opposite to the stated objective of bringing peace closer. By making American military assistance conditional on Kyiv’s restraint, Washington could weaken Ukraine’s ability both to defend its population and to impose costs on Russia’s war machine.

The distinction between these two capabilities matters. Air-defence systems and American intelligence help Ukraine anticipate and intercept incoming missiles and drones. Long-range drones, meanwhile, allow Kyiv to strike Russian refineries, disrupt fuel supplies and force Moscow to divert resources towards protecting infrastructure far from the battlefield. Together, they help offset Russia’s numerical and material superiority. Ukraine’s refinery campaign has already demonstrated its economic significance. Repeated attacks have damaged processing facilities, disrupted domestic fuel supplies and compelled Moscow to take measures to protect its energy market.

Although these operations have not crippled Russia’s oil industry, they have imposed costs on a country whose energy revenues help finance its invasion. Demanding that Kyiv abandon this leverage without securing meaningful Russian concessions would weaken its negotiating........

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