The phone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin has set the stage for a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Ukraine war. President Trump’s announcement that negotiations would begin “immediately” marks a shift in Washington’s approach, prioritising direct talks with Moscow. However, while Ukraine is being kept in the loop ~ Mr Trump called President Volodymyr Zelenskky after his conversation with Mr Putin ~ the structure of these negotiations raises questions about the balance of power. One of the most notable developments is Mr Trump’s statement that Ukraine is unlikely to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).

This aligns with the stance taken by his defense secretary at a Nato meet on Wednesday and represents a departure from previous US commitments. Ukraine has long sought Nato membership as a security guarantee, and its exclusion from the alliance would fulfil one of Moscow’s primary war aims. For Kyiv,........

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