A planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may command headlines, but it is unlikely to shift the trajectory of the Ukraine war. Despite Mr Trump’s repeated claims of being the leader who can end the conflict “in 24 hours,” the gulf between Russia and Ukraine is too vast ~ and too uncompromising ~ to be bridged by handshakes and high-level optics. The fundamentals of Moscow’s position remain frozen in time.

Russia’s June memorandum makes sweeping demands: recognition of its sovereignty over five Ukrainian regions, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and a ban on foreign military presence. These are not negotiation points, they are ultimatums. The language may be tailored to seem diplomatic, but the subtext is one of surrender. There is little evidence, either publicly or behind closed doors, that the Kremlin has altered this position.........

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