In October 2025, the fragile peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan feels more like the end of a long-standing cycle of mistrust and misunderstanding than the conclusion of a war. Strategic despair is the new term for what was previously referred to as strategic depth. The most recent ceasefire, mediated in Doha with support from Qatar and tacit support from China, may have put an end to the fighting, but it hasn’t eliminated the virus that plagues both countries, making them targets of mistrust and reprisals.

The conflict that broke out this year along the Durand Line was not your typical conflict; rather, it was a brutal conflict that lasted for decades. Islamabad and Kabul have not been able to come up with a workable plan for how to live together since the Taliban took over in 2021. What started as cautious cooperation swiftly turned into cross-border animosity, with the Taliban government accusing Islamabad of breaching Afghanistan’s sovereignty and Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of hosting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Conflicts were commonplace by the middle of 2025, and shortly after, a full-scale border village-level military conflict broke out, resulting in a humanitarian disaster that the world had not seen since 2001.

Then, after several months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, the October truce was declared in Doha, providing a brief reprieve for both war-weary nations. However, given the possibility of what is happening behind the scenes, there is little optimism that this truce will result in a durable peace. The deal gives Pakistan some respite time to review its counterterrorism strategy and respond to the escalating unrest at home. It serves as a cover for the Taliban government to take a temporary break amid mounting political unrest and economic strains. The real question, though, is whether a truce can last as long as the war is based on conflicting national narratives, distrust, and ideology rather than territory.

Afghanistan has always been seen through the lens of national security by Pakistan’s security establishment. But that Cold War-era concept, which was........

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