A Labour MP, reflecting on the problems the Prime Minister faces over the war in Iran, observed this week: ‘Keir got it right, but things keep going wrong.’ His point was that Starmer kept Britain out of the Israeli-American air strikes, a position popular both with the parliamentary Labour party and the electorate, yet the impact of that conflict has laid bare three serious problems at the heart of the British state.

First, there has been a fracturing of relations between Starmer and Britain’s defence chief, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton. Second is the vulnerability of the economy to energy price shocks. Third is Ed Miliband’s net-zero crusade, which has put further pressure on the cost of living, Starmer’s biggest domestic problem.

But ministers also believe the conflict has created an opening to do a deeper economic deal with the European Union – one which the Prime Minister and his chief negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds plan to get rolling next week.

The leak of discussions at a National Security Council meeting on Friday 27 February – the eve of the bombing of Iran – exposed Starmer’s failure to initially persuade his ministers to let the Americans use the bases at Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford to attack Iran’s missile sites.

It can now be revealed that a fault line also opened in that same meeting between No. 10 and Knighton. Jonathan Powell, the National Security Adviser, asked Knighton whether Britain should send warships to the eastern Mediterranean. ‘What about the carrier?’ he pressed, referring to HMS Prince of Wales. Knighton replied: ‘We don’t need the carrier. We have an aircraft carrier – it’s called Cyprus.’ But the failure to send a warship proved to be a disastrous political judgment that enraged Cyprus, Jordan and the UAE. ‘Warships are part of diplomatic theatre,’ says one insider. ‘They’re symbols as much as they are weapons. And nobody has said that to the Prime Minister.’

It has led to what may be a fatal collapse of confidence in Knighton. As an RAF man, he is seen as too dismissive of the Royal Navy’s ability to ‘show the flag’ and reassure allies. A senior security source reveals that in another top-level meeting last weekend: ‘Powell and other people were saying: “Should we put a range of options on the table for the Prime Minister to have a look at?” And the chief of the........

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