By Sardar Khan Niazi

By all global accounts, commodity prices are falling. From oil to wheat to industrial metals, the world is finally experiencing relief after years of post-pandemic inflation. However, in Pakistan, the change is barely visible to the average consumer. According to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, international commodity prices dropped by 24% in 2023 and are expected to fall by another 7% over the next two years. That should, in theory, mean lower fuel, food, and import prices for countries like Pakistan. Yet, despite these developments, the country’s inflation rate remains stubbornly high, and prices of daily-use items continue to pinch household budgets. Take petroleum products, for example. Global crude oil prices have slid below $80 per barrel in recent months. However, local fuel prices remain elevated. As of August 2025, petrol stands at around Rs 290 per liter. Much of this is due to high taxation–levies, GST, and customs duties make up a large portion of the retail price. Consumers see no relief because the government, desperate to meet IMF targets and fiscal shortfalls, absorbs the benefit of global declines. In grocery markets across Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar, the story is the same. While international wheat prices have seen a downward trend, atta (flour) continues to retail at Rs 140–160 per kg in many urban areas. The imported wheat fiasco earlier this year added insult to injury. Despite a bumper local harvest, the government authorized wheat imports that flooded the market, driving farm-gate prices below support levels. Farmers protested in Multan, Vehari, and parts of KP, while consumers still paid high prices for flour due to storage, transport, and cartelization costs. Even vegetables and pulses, largely domestically sourced, show no significant decline in price. A recent survey by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that prices of onions, tomatoes, and lentils have either remained flat or risen, despite........

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