Pakistan finds itself trapped in a geopolitical and fiscal quandary. Islamabad’s strategic partnership with China – once hailed as a blueprint for economic transformation – has become increasingly problematic.

Simultaneously, a shifting US policy, now clearly favouring India, has left Pakistan adrift in the great power rivalry. The grand promises of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and longstanding military ties with Beijing now mask a sobering reality of mounting debt, stalled projects, and alarming security vulnerabilities.

CPEC was once touted as the economic miracle Pakistan desperately needed – a $62 billion project to transform the Gwadar Port into a global trade hub and fuel rapid industrial growth under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the numbers tell a very different story. Over more than a decade, Pakistan has seen only about $25 billion to $30 billion in projects come to fruition, and more than 75 per cent of that capital has been delivered as loans rather than foreign direct investment.

This discrepancy is not a mere accounting error but rather symptomatic of deeper systemic problems. Flawed project designs, bureaucratic inertia, governance failures and an unpredictable security environment have all conspired to dilute CPEC’s transformative potential. The heavy reliance on debt financing has left Pakistan with an ever-mounting fiscal burden – most notably, an unresolved $15 billion energy-related debt that continues to restrict the nation’s economic manoeuvrability. With every day that passes, Pakistan is forced to make difficult policy choices, often sacrificing long-term strategic autonomy for immediate infrastructural needs.

The unresolved $15 billion energy debt is not an abstract figure – it represents a tangible constraint on Pakistan’s ability to invest in its future. With a significant portion of Chinese capital coming in the........

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