The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India following the Pahalgam terror attack marks a critical escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions, with dire regional consequences that could potentially spiral into conflict. The treaty, which had governed water-sharing of the Indus River system since 1960, allocated 80 per cent of the basin’s water to Pakistan, sustaining its agriculture, hydropower, and urban needs.

Pakistan’s economy and food security hinge on the Indus system, which irrigates 90 per cent of its cultivated land and supports 237 million people. The suspension jeopardises water flows from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), threatening crop collapses, urban water shortages, and hydropower deficits. With only 10 per cent water storage capacity (via dams like Tarbela and Mangla), Pakistan faces acute vulnerability to reduced flows, risking food insecurity for millions and economic destabilisation. The agricultural sector, contributing 23 per cent to GDP and employing 68 per cent of rural workers, could collapse, triggering rural unemployment, migration, and civil unrest.

India’s move grants it unilateral control over western rivers, enabling accelerated construction of dam projects (Ratle, Pakal Dul) and potential water diversion. Already water-stressed and politically fragile, Pakistan may retaliate through diplomatic channels (World Bank arbitration). A prolonged suspension could also push Pakistan toward desperation, incentivising military action to secure water resources or retaliate against Indian projects. With both nations nuclear-armed and Kashmir tensions unresolved, water scarcity could act as a catalyst for broader conflict.

Pakistan’s water governance has remained marred by fragmented institutions, a lack of infrastructure development,........

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