The Albanese government has a lot hinging on the successful delivery of savings earmarked from the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Without the $19 billion factored into the budget from these savings, the cost of the NDIS will exceed $66 billion by 2027-28.

Changes to NDIS legislation made in the government’s first term were a modest start, intended to reduce cost growth to 8 per cent a year, in line with the 2023 national cabinet agreement.

But there is no guarantee these changes will succeed, because the scope of measures is inadequate to deliver the scale of change needed.

And even 8 per cent annual growth is untenable in the long term, far exceeding growth in other comparable government programs.

To make matters worse, one of the key measures identified to reduce NDIS costs – the establishment of “foundational supports” (disability-specific supports outside of individual NDIS packages) – would actually increase the net spend on disability, since these services require both levels of government to find new money under the federal government’s current plan.

Unsurprisingly, this is proving challenging, particularly since progress on NDIS reform has been tied to parallel negotiations for an uplift in National Health Reform Agreement contributions from the........

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