The 2025 US National Security Strategy signals the most significant shift in Middle East policy since the Iraq War. The new framework aims to reallocate resources toward great-power competition, emphasizing cost reduction and burden-sharing with regional partners. Core interests remain: energy security, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, countering Iran, and ensuring Israel’s security through the Abraham Accords architecture.

This recalibration is overdue. For more than a decade, American policy treated the Middle East as a democracy-building project. The Arab Spring seemed to vindicate this assumption. When protests swept the region in 2011, Washington oscillated between supporting protesters and accommodating authoritarian allies, generating confusion and undermining credibility with all sides. 

In Egypt, the United States appeared to abandon Mubarak. In Bahrain, it stood aside as Gulf allies crushed dissent. In Libya, it toppled Gaddafi without a plan for what would follow. In Syria, it declared that “Assad must go” while doing little to make that happen.

The confusion imposed lasting costs. Weak states and protracted conflicts forced the United States into reactive crisis management while narrowing its strategic focus. This period coincided with China’s emergence as the principal challenger to American power. Washington remained consumed by the consequences of a policy it had helped unleash. While America was distracted, its adversaries moved.

Iran seized the opportunity first. The weakening of Arab states created openings for expansion through proxies. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen became central nodes in Tehran’s regional strategy. Hezbollah evolved into a parallel military force with an arsenal of 100,000 rockets and thousands of missiles. The Houthis transformed Yemen into a platform for regional coercion, and after October 2023, expanded attacks into maritime routes

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