Future tensions between the United States and Iran could ignite more conflict, disrupting global energy markets, threatening oil stability, and broader economic security.

The “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran in June 2025 witnessed the largest direct military confrontation between the decades-long Middle Eastern foes and drew in the United States to intervene by striking the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with its ordnance penetrator “bunker-buster” bombs. Despite President Donald Trump’s characterization of the operation that sought to remove Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities as an all-encompassing win, and his announcement of a ceasefire on June 24, the nuclear risk remains—and with it, the specter of a regional escalation that could destabilize energy markets, raise oil prices, and deal a blow to global energy security. 

The US Defense Intelligence Agency noted that centrifuges may still be intact beneath the rubble at the above three sites, while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that it cannot locate 410 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, likely removed before the war, and potentially sufficient for the construction of ten nuclear warheads. As the nuclear risk and related threat perceptions that prompted Israel’s initial attacks persist, the road back to war does not appear to be long, and the value of an alternative settlement increases each day.

Regime Change is Unlikely  

A new and potentially more intensive round of fighting would impose significant costs on all actors that have a stake in the conflict, especially in light of the fact that a military resolution cannot be guaranteed. Talks of regime change in Iran, whether facilitated by foreign actors or emerging organically from within Iranian society, fall short of being realistic at present. While a large proportion of the population opposes the Islamic Republic and the demonstrations of........

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