It’s relatively straightforward that the second Trump administration is pursuing some form of foreign policy realism, but what particular sect remains a hotly debated topic. Signs are tentatively pointing toward a “spheres of influence-type” brand of realpolitik, and that could be positive for global peace and stability.

One close observer of Trumpian politics recently characterized this new approach as simply prolific “deal-making,” which has placed a businessman’s imprimatur on the “new realism.” As foreign policy experts are well aware, “realism” encompasses a rich tradition of thinking on diplomacy and war that spans millennia, dating back to the Greek historian Thucydides, a thinker whose ideas continue to inform the contemporary Washington dilemma regarding China policy.

The myriad traditions under the umbrella of realist thought on global politics share a singular focus on power as the primary arbiter in world affairs. For those wondering about the future of the vitally important US-China relationship, a dyad increasingly taking on the appearance of a “new Cold War,” it will be imperative to understand the Trump administration’s approach to realism.

A valid framework for assessing the internal realist debates within the Trump administration concerns whether the current realism will embrace “power balancing” or instead lean in the alternative direction of embracing “spheres of influence.” 

The former “power balancing” idea of countering China on all fronts seems to have been the animating idea of Trump’s first administration. And these concepts concerning accelerating “Great Power Competition” were wholeheartedly embraced under the Biden administration as well, with somewhat uncertain and even dangerous results.

Now, with wars in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East showing no signs of subsiding, Trump’s second administration appears to be exploring a somewhat novel approach that embraces this sphere........

© The National Interest