Taiwan’s formal decision to eliminate nuclear energy has sparked fierce debate across the island. Taiwan’s energy security is not just a civilian issue, but a cornerstone of operational resilience in times of crisis.

Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert warned in mid-May that abandoning a stable source of power in favor of unreliable imports signals a broader unseriousness about national defense. One of us similarly argued that without nuclear energy, Taiwan would be less able to endure a prolonged blockade, a vulnerability that complicates American contingency planning. In response, Michael Turton called these assumptions misplaced—contending that nuclear plants would be targeted and destroyed early in a conflict, potentially triggering radiological disasters. Turton also claims that under blockade conditions, reduced industrial activity would lower energy demand, allowing the island to stretch its remaining power for longer.

When assessing the threat from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), many observers fall into a state of cognitive dissonance—regarding Beijing both as a cold, calculating strategic player and as a reckless and impulsive actor willing to act impulsively and incur catastrophic costs. Both of these interpretations of Chinese behavior cannot be true. Of course, decision-makers are never fully rational. However, in preparing for conflict against a high-end adversary that ranks third in global military power and has actively worked to expand its global political influence for decades, it is prudent to consider all its ambitions and leadership intentions.

Consider Beijing’s recent Strait Thunder 2025A drills, which rehearsed a large-scale blockade and mock attack on Taiwanese energy infrastructure. This was an extremely hostile signal—yet it did not occur in a vacuum. When President Lai Ching-te delivered his inaugural address, the PLA conducted a two-day Joint Sword-2024A in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. In April 2023, shortly after former President Tsai Ing-wen met with US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, the PLA conducted large-scale drills encircling Taiwan. A similar pattern of behavior was seen the previous August after Nancy Pelosi defied Chinese threats and traveled to Taipei. The PLA launched identical exercises, which dispatched over 100 aircraft and more than 10 warships and designated multiple no-fly and no-sail zones around Taiwan.

The PLA is not only flexing its muscles for the cameras. It is rehearsing, step by step, a range of coercive scenarios designed to force Taiwan into submission. These drills reflect Beijing’s evolving playbook for a campaign that prioritizes psychological pressure, economic strangulation, and infrastructure disruption over immediate invasion.

Full-spectrum destruction is not a smart policy, and Chinese leaders know it. If Beijing seeks to project political influence and cement its position as a regional leader, it cannot afford to unleash chaos on the island it aims to control. Zhang Chi, a Chinese military expert speaking on state broadcaster CCTV,

© The National Interest