The United States has inked a vague agreement with the Yemen-based Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah) to end their fighting in the Red Sea. The shocking announcement immediately raised many questions, not limited to whether the deal includes all Red Sea shipping and Israel—the latter of which the Houthis continue to strike. Yet, even with limited details and conflicting reports about the substance of the agreement, the decision to end fighting with the group marks a crucial moment for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

The deal comes after reports hinted at a renewed ground war in Yemen, backed by U.S. material support for the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) of Yemen. According to The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates approached Trump administration officials with a plan, hoping to take advantage of the U.S. air campaign by conducting a parallel ground operation into Houthi territory. From their perspective, the U.S. air campaign could open the door for pro-government groups against weakened Houthi forces.

That thinking is flawed because it discounts similar failed approaches and the risks of renewed fighting. Consequently, the Trump administration was wise to cut a deal with Sanaa, especially after the failure of the renewed U.S. operation against the Houthis that began in mid-March. While the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) claims over 1,000 strikes on supposed Houthi positions, it refused to share many details about the strikes, including casualty numbers and type, weapons used, and enemy assets destroyed. The Trump administration—known for its boisterous efforts to highlight policy victories—claims success but refuses to share much evidence, hardly promoting confidence in such statements.

Most information on the U.S. strikes comes from civil society and the United Nations, which continue to track civilian casualties under Operation Rough Rider. Thus far, conservative estimates suggest 158 civilians killed and 342 injured between March 15 and April 22—not including an April 28 strike on a Houthi migrant detention center that reportedly killed upwards of sixty-eight African migrants. According to the Yemen Data Project, the total accounts for a civilian harm rate of

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