Forgot Your Password?

New to The Nation? Subscribe

Print subscriber? Activate your online access

.nation-small__b{fill:#fff;}

Russia, Ukraine, and the Danger of Escalation

How should the West respond?

Even as it continues the war in Ukraine, Russia faces serious challenges: While Kremlin insiders concede that the economy is reaching a crisis point, Ukraine’s recent drone attacks have created long lines at the gas pump and other hardships for the general population, polls point to increasing public dissatisfaction, and the war has now persisted longer than World War I (a war that ended badly for those who hold power in Russia).

Putin talks tough and shows no sign of backing down. Yet, given the challenges his country faces, why not seek a negotiated end to the war? One distinct possibility: Putin may well believe that his rule could be threatened by an unsatisfactory end to the war. Whenever—and however—this war ends, it is hard to imagine a scenario that does not involve a harsh reckoning by the Russian people over the costs, and rather meager gains, from this war.

While Putin’s grip on power certainly seems firm, he has long been obsessed with “color revolutions,” popular uprisings in post-Soviet states that have deposed longstanding leaders. However unlikely the prospect of such an uprising in Russia, the downside risk to Putin would be severe. If he thinks so, the implications for the war’s outcome are considerable.

So what’s next for Putin? We don’t know. Beyond missile strikes and other attacks in Ukraine, he will no doubt continue Russia’s “hybrid war” tactics trying to unsettle European governments and populations. In a war with no clear outlet, might Putin be tempted to “test” NATO or escalate in some other fashion? Perhaps. There has certainly been increasing speculation on that front. If at the beginning of July one could say “war talk is swirling around Europe,” by the end of the month, after Ukraine destroyed an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, the talk was of “total war.”

However, it is imperative to note........

© The Nation