In the past, winter used to bring a sense of calm to the activities of the Taliban in general and their adversaries in particular, but not anymore. A Pakistani version of the Taliban, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is growing impatient with time and becoming relentless in its antagonism, signifying something sinister in store. How Pakistan will deal with the TTP menace is a million-dollar question.

Sometimes, Pakistan sees the TTP as an associate of the Afghan Taliban ruling over Kabul, while at other times, it views the TTP as an independent home-grown challenge. Regardless of the context, one thing is certain: the year 2025 is likely to bring a clamorous, blood-soaked confrontation between the two sides. To maintain friendly relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan primarily relies on the Haqqanis, who have roots in both KPK and the eastern provinces of Afghanistan. The Haqqanis are the last resort; otherwise, Pakistan has become almost irrelevant in Afghan affairs. The Kandaharis pay no heed to Pakistan. Compared to the past, when Pakistan enjoyed influence over Kabul, it now resorts to bribing Afghan nationals to safeguard its interests. Even Kabul is becoming increasingly hostile towards Pakistan.

Pakistan could not play a significant role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, a space that India has filled by investing more than $2 billion in infrastructure development, hospital........

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