As the Polish electorate picks the country’s next president, questions about its nuclear future persist. Russia’s nuclear threats and insertion of nuclear arms into Belarus could create the impression that Poland is more exposed. In response, Poland could seek its own nuclear weapons, become a host for NATO weapons or turn to France and the United Kingdom for protection.

In March, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland must pursue “capabilities” related to nuclear weapons, and Andrzej Duda, the current president, has urged that U.S. nuclear arms be based in the country. Poland’s seeking to become nuclear armed would upset the West, but the other two options could be viable.

For over a decade, President Vladimir Putin has heightened nuclear threats to Europe. In 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, he said he was “ready” to bring nuclear arms into play. In 2018, Putin displayed on large video screens a simulated nuclear attack on Florida and a “super torpedo” that could render coastal cities uninhabitable.

In 2019, a new Russian ground-launched cruise missile led the U.S. to withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, with the support of NATO allies. In 2023, Russia began moving Iskander missiles into Belarus, and last June, the two states conducted joint

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