Trump approval rating hits new low as Iran war squeezes economy

President Trump’s approval numbers have slipped in recent weeks, hovering near the lowest levels of his second term, as Americans — including his conservative base — grow increasingly wary of a prolonged war in Iran that could portend trouble for the U.S. economy.

Recent polling from YouGov and The Economist has Trump’s approval rating down 4 percentage points since just before the U.S. struck Iran, falling from 39 percent in late February to 35 percent in the latest survey.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll similarly put Trump’s approval at 36 percent, down from 40 percent earlier this month, while a Fox News survey found the president’s disapproval rating at 59 percent, the highest level recorded in either of his terms.

The shift has coincided with declining support for Trump’s handling of the Iran war, which saw its sharpest drop yet this past week — as gas prices climbed to more than $4 for the first time since 2022 and the stock market tumbled to its lowest levels of the year.

Trump, who spoke to the public Wednesday night about the conflict, saw his polling on Iran start out at 39 percent in early March, before dropping to 36 percent for two weeks and then ticking down to 30 percent in the latest YouGov/Economist survey.

Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said many concerns about the war are closely tied to views on the economy, which has long been one of Trump’s strongest issues.

“The long-term problem for Trump has been that views about the economy have grown more negative during his presidency,” Skelley said.

“When the things that you are viewed as strongest on become weaknesses, what do you have left to do to use as something to appeal to the public?” he added.

The erosion in Trump’s support extends across the board, but it is particularly notable among his core backers and voting blocs that helped fuel his 2024 victory.

In the last five weeks — since just before the Iran war began — Trump’s overall support from his base has declined: He’s down 6 points to 76 percent approval among his 2024 voters; down 4 points to 79 percent among conservatives; down 5 points to 81 percent among Republicans; and down 5 points to 92 percent among self-described “MAGA supporters,” according to YouGov/Economist polling.

On the other side of the aisle, meanwhile, support has remained low: Approval is down 3 points among surveyed Democrats, 2 points among liberals and 1 point among respondents who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

Among independents, Trump’s approval stood at 25 percent in late February, before ticking up to 31 percent in early March and falling to 22 percent in the latest poll.

Trump has also seen support soften among key groups that backed him in recent elections. His approval among white voters dropped 4 points to 41 percent, while support among Black and Hispanic voters dropped 1 point to 10 percent and 34 percent, respectively.

Among those without a college degree, Trump’s approval rating declined from 43 percent to 37 percent over the last five weeks, while support among college graduates is stable at 32 percent. 

In 2024, Trump outperformed expectations among young voters, who have been a reliable voting bloc for Democrats in recent elections. Although Trump started his second term with a plurality of support among voters younger than 30, the group has swung hard in the opposite direction — with only 24 percent approving of his performance in office, down from 32 percent in late February.

The drop-off in Trump’s overall approval rating comes as Americans broadly sour on the economy, with only 14 percent saying conditions are improving, down from 22 percent in late February, in YouGov/Economist surveys. 

The shift is especially acute among Trump’s base. The share of Republicans with an optimistic outlook on the economy has dropped from 50 percent in late February to 29 percent today.

At the same time, GOP support for Trump’s handling of Iran has also declined — falling from 83 percent in early March to 68 percent today. That drop comes as 61 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Republicans, say they’ve noticed gas prices rising at the pump.

“It’s not hard for people to see, ‘Oh, gas prices went up after we attacked Iran, and the Middle East is where a lot of oil comes from,’” Skelley said. “You know, people are not dumb. They connect the dots on that.“

“They launched this military operation, and whatever you think about the judgment of that, the politics of it [are that] people are not terribly happy with it,” he added. “And it’s now, if anything, further exacerbating people’s negative views about the economy.”

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