Poll shows Paxton beating Cornyn in Texas if Trump doesn’t endorse

President Trump’s reluctance to endorse a candidate in the Texas Senate Republican primary race could prove perilous for Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) bid in the upcoming runoff between the sitting senator and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

A new Change Research poll found that 42 percent of likely Texas Republican primary voters said they support Paxton, compared with 39 percent for Cornyn.

But if Trump endorses Cornyn, the poll indicated that some of these voters would swing their support to the incumbent. It found he would have a 3-point advantage over the attorney general in such a situation. 

A Trump endorsement for Paxton would also change the race.

If Trump were to endorse Paxton, 50 percent of voters said they would vote for the attorney general, with only 40 percent saying they would back Cornyn.

The two candidates advanced to a runoff election after neither obtained more than 50 percent of the vote in the Texas Republican primary election on March 3.

Republicans generally have seen Cornyn as a stronger general election candidate than Paxton, though both could defeat Democratic nominee James Talarico in a state that has gone decades since electing a Democrat to the Senate. 

Both candidates have positioned themselves as avid supporters of Trump and his administration’s policies. Cornyn recently expressed openness to flipping his stance on a proposed change to a Senate procedure that could facilitate the passage of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, called the SAVE America Act, one of the president’s top legislative priorities.

Paxton said he would consider dropping out of the race if the Senate moved to eliminate the regular filibuster to move the SAVE America Act through the chamber. 

Trump has continued to tease the possibility of an endorsement in the race, saying earlier this month he would expect the candidate he does not support to exit the race. However, the president had still not endorsed either Texas politician by the withdrawal deadline this past Tuesday, ensuring both Cornyn and Paxton will appear on the runoff ballot on May 26. 

The Change Research survey polled 811 Texas voters who indicated they may vote in the Republican primary. The poll collected responses March 17-19 with a margin of error of approximately 3.5 percentage points. 

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