Trump administration makes big claims on noncitizen voting but won’t explain the math

President Trump in a primetime address earlier this month again raised the specter of large volumes of migrants voting in U.S. elections, warning there could be more than 250,000 noncitizens among four state’s voter rolls.

But the Trump administration has not explained how it got that number, and correspondence sent to the four states reviewed by The Hill shows the federal government through a “preliminary review” found less than half that number – 118,000 – matched names and other information on file with the federal government.

Neither the White House nor the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which fired off letters to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California and Nevada, explained their methodology for reaching those figures.

The claims are additionally confusing as those states have refused demands by the Trump administration to turn over their voter rolls, raising questions over what data DHS even reviewed.

“I have serious doubts about the reliability of your data and accuracy of your claims, since my office has not shared our statewide voter registration list with DHS or any other federal agency or official,” California Secretary of State Shirley Weber wrote to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin late last week in a letter obtained by The Hill.

“Indeed, state law prohibits sharing voters’ sensitive information, including social security numbers, with any person, including the federal government,” she wrote, adding later, “Notably, your letter provides no detail whatsoever that my office can use to evaluate the veracity of your allegations.”

In its letter to the four states, DHS said it found names that match the birthday, address and social security numbers of someone in their files.

But several questioned how the department would know that since none of those four states were willing to turn over their voter rolls. All four have been engaged in litigation to bar the federal government from accessing the lists. Several Democratic-led states have sued over demands for their rolls, and have won 16 out of 16 suits, so far, to block access.

Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), who represents a district in the Philadelphia suburbs, borrowed a phrase from former President George W. Bush in calling........

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